Cocos - Walzer Wang / 王哲 - 十年

Ten year's summary from Walzer

Here, I've excerpted some Walzer's viewpoints that I find deeply resonated with.

绝大多数创业者,都会承认风口的力量,甚至我早年曾写过一篇文章的标题就叫 《选择和努力一样重要》的文章。而踩中风口的企业又分两类:一类是经过深思熟虑作出判断的业界顶级大佬如乔布斯、任正非、雷军,另一类则是误打误撞命中然后产生幸存者偏差的年轻人。


我记得在微博或者知乎上有人喷过我,说「Cocos 就是一只踩中风口的猪,还以为自己就上天了」。前半句没毛病,但后半句,你见过那只猪能持续飞十年么?起步是运气,后面靠实力。


In the torrent of time, anyone can only follow the trend, take advantage of the trend, or create the trend. For an entrepreneurial apprentice, the precondition for survival is to follow the trend. If you don't follow the trend, you're out in the first episode of the script. Once you've survived, you need to think about how to live better, which involves taking advantage of the trend. When you reach a state of mastery, you can start creating trends. The viewpoints of following, taking advantage, and creating trends can be seen as a microcosm of the world, much like Charlie Munger's ideas. These principles can be applied to secondary market investments (entering on the right side, riding the trend, and creating trends when you have substantial capital) and also in personal interactions (Lv Fang's thinking of danger, retreat, and change). Based on my ten years of experience in academia, those who ultimately secure positions at top institutions like MIT and Harvard are not predominantly naturally gifted; rather, they are skilled at taking advantage of and creating trends. The leaders are a minority, while most are survivors who stumbled upon success by chance. Academic issues also revolve around this premise.

Life is a long-term business.

 

这个世界上最难的事情之一,可能是自我认知吧。


Dunning Kruger Effect